Thursday, 5 September 2013

Poisson Betting - August Update

Here is an update on how my Poisson Distribution is going so far this season. This covers the whole of July & August

If you missed it, I talk in an earlier blog post about my motive behind this but below are the 19 separate bets across the 23 different leagues that I have analysed

For each game I predicted:

  • Which team would win or if it would be a draw
  • Double Chance (Win/Draw for each team)
  • Score Prediction
  • Both Teams To Score (or Not)
  • Over and Under 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 & 4.5 Goals per game (10 separate Bets)
  • Corners – Under 10, 10-12, 12+ (English Prem – L2 only)
  • Cards Predicted – Under 4, 4-6, + (English Prem – L2 only)
  • Red Card – Yes/No (English Prem – L2 only)
  • Home & Away Cards Predicted (Under 2, 2-3, Over 3) (English Prem – L2 Only) – 2 Separate Bets

 The Table below shows the success rates across each League

I don’t think the results are too bad but time will tell whether these could have been achieved purely by guessing rather than statistical prediction. It’s early days for some of the leagues so the results will fluctuate over time. The breakdown of the ratios for each division is below.

I will update the scores again at the end of September and so forth on a monthly basis.